by Xinhua writers Zhao Jiasong, Larry Neild
LONDON, Sept. 15 (Xinhua) -- Britain's Labour government is facing another constitutional headache after nationalist party leaders from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland met in Cardiff on Monday to press for greater self-determination.
Scottish First Minister and Scottish National Party (SNP) leader John Swinney, Welsh First Minister and Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, and Northern Ireland First Minister, Sinn Fein vice president Michelle O'Neill and Sinn Fein President Mary Lou McDonald signed a memorandum as party leaders setting out areas for closer political cooperation.
The meeting came as British Prime Minister Andy Burnham pursues a wider devolution agenda. It also followed remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump in support of a united Ireland, adding another sensitive constitutional issue for the British government to handle.
A COMMON CALL FOR SELF-DETERMINATION
The memorandum used unusually strong language. It said "Westminster's time is coming to an end" and called on the British government to "prepare for, plan and facilitate constitutional change."
It also said people in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland should be free to decide their constitutional future. No Westminster government should stand in the way of that choice, according to the document.
The parties also agreed to cooperate on the economy, energy and relations with Europe. They blamed Brexit for lost economic opportunities and said they saw their nations' future in the European Union.
But public opinion is less clear-cut than Monday's show of unity might suggest. Recent polls across the three nations have not shown majority support for leaving the United Kingdom.
The longer-term trend has still caused concern among supporters of the union. The Guardian wrote in June that Britain's decision to leave the European Union had "bolstered support for Scottish independence." Support has remained close to half of Scottish voters for much of the period since Brexit.
A SHOW OF UNITY, DIFFERENT PATHS
Experts believed that the immediate constitutional effects of the Cardiff meeting were much more limited. The memorandum itself does not change the distribution of powers inside Britain or provide any new legal route to independence.
Laura McAllister, professor of public policy and the governance of Wales at Cardiff University, said that the significance lies in the fact that the first ministers of all three devolved nations now favour greater autonomy and, ultimately, constitutional change.
She said the choice of the broader term "self-determination" was deliberate because Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are at very different points in their constitutional debates.
"This is the first time that the nations of the United Kingdom are attempting to drive the constitutional question rather than the centre," she said, adding that England's absence would become a major issue in any wider review of the United Kingdom.
Those differences leave a large gap between a common political message and a common route forward. Scotland held an independence referendum in 2014 and voted by 55 percent to 45 percent to remain in the United Kingdom. Wales has never held such a vote. Northern Ireland's constitutional arrangements are tied to the Good Friday Agreement and its principle of consent.
Public opinion is another constraint. The electoral strength of nationalist parties does not automatically translate into majority support for breaking up the United Kingdom.
Jon Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool and an expert on Northern Ireland, told Xinhua that the nationalist parties now hold unusually strong political positions across the three devolved nations.
He cautioned that public opinion in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland still remains, "to varying degrees," in favour of staying within the United Kingdom.
Huang Fei, an associate professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China, told Xinhua that the meeting was held by the participants in their roles as party leaders. The memorandum has no legal force, and as a result, its short-term impact on Britain's constitutional arrangements is likely to be limited, she said.
PRESSURE ON THE LABOUR AND BURNHAM
The Cardiff initiative also lands directly in the middle of Burnham's own effort to move power away from Westminster.
Since taking office in July, Burnham has put devolution near the center of his domestic agenda. In his first speech as prime minister on July 20, Burnham pledged to move power out of Westminster and into communities across the country.
Three days later, Burnham began working from "No10 North," a new government office in Manchester. The office is intended to coordinate regional growth and devolution, with Burnham saying the days of Whitehall resisting devolution were "over, for good."
His government has also promised greater powers and financial freedom for English mayors. Burnham has described the changes as a major transfer of power from Westminster, while ruling out fresh independence referendums.
That distinction is now being tested by nationalist leaders. Swinney said in Cardiff that Burnham's own political logic -- that decisions should be taken closer to the people affected by them -- should lead him to recognize Scotland's right to decide its constitutional future.
Yang Fang, a researcher at the Institute of European Studies of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said that the nationalist parties are, to some extent, making use of Burnham's devolution agenda to advance their own demands.
Burnham's programme was mainly designed to transfer powers within England, she said, adding that the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Fein can use the broader argument for decentralization to press for further powers and self-determination in their own nations, and such a campaign may also help the parties mobilise support among their respective electorates.
Ian Scott, a professor at the University of Manchester, said Burnham now faces the danger that deeper devolution itself could encourage demands to go further.
The three nationalist movements also face difficult questions of their own, including public services, taxation, population, defence and possible future EU membership. Their objectives are far from identical, he argued.
Downing Street has so far held its ground. Burnham's spokesperson said Monday the government is focused on "addressing the issues that matter most to families, including easing pressures on household finances and delivering greater economic security, rather than engaging in constitutional debates or further referendums."
The issue is unlikely to disappear. According to British media, Burnham is expected to meet the leaders of the devolved administrations in the coming weeks.
Scott described that meeting as an important staging post for deciding the timetable and pace of further devolution. The question for Burnham is how far power can move away from Westminster without giving fresh force to parties that want to move much further, he said. ■
