CAPE TOWN, Aug. 4 (Xinhua) -- Climate change is shifting the malaria landscape in Africa, increasing risks in parts of southern and eastern Africa while reducing transmission in some of the continent's current hotspots, according to a new study.
The study, conducted by an international team of researchers including the University of Cape Town (UCT), was published in the journal Nature on July 29, the UCT said in a statement released on Monday.
The study found that climate change has slightly increased malaria overall, but its effects vary widely across regions.
In many West African countries where malaria is already widespread, rising temperatures are expected to reduce transmission as conditions become too hot for mosquitoes to thrive. Cases could decline by about 5 percent in countries including Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Mali, while malaria may even be eliminated in some extremely hot Sahel countries.
In cooler regions where malaria is not currently a major problem, including southern Africa and the East African highlands, warming temperatures are making conditions more suitable for mosquito-borne malaria.
The study has projected malaria cases to increase by about 5 percent in parts of the Ethiopian highlands, Kenya, and Burundi, with similarly large rises expected in Angola, Zambia, and northeastern South Africa. By 2100, malaria risk could rise by 20 percent in areas including the Rift Valley and coastal southern Africa.
"We are seeing a notable increase in the number of children contracting malaria in Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and KwaZulu-Natal due to human-caused climate change," said Christopher Trisos, co-author and director of the Climate Risk Lab and principal research officer at UCT's African Climate and Development Initiative.
"Governments, health systems, and communities must adapt to the evolving malaria threat," he said.
"Climate change isn't just making malaria worse or better, it's moving it," said co-author Tamma Carleton, an assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley.
The authors said both climate mitigation and adaptation measures, including malaria elimination strategies, will be needed to address the shifting disease burden across Africa. ■
