JERUSALEM, July 13 (Xinhua) -- Israeli researchers have identified a link between Indian Ocean temperatures and prolonged winter dry spells in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem said in a statement on Monday.
Published in Atmospheric Research, the study suggests that seasonal drought forecasts could be improved months in advance.
The researchers found that temperature changes linked to the Indian Ocean Dipole, a recurring pattern of warming and cooling in the tropical Indian Ocean, can influence winter weather thousands of kilometers away in the Levant.
By analyzing more than 70 years of climate observations and atmospheric data, the researchers found that positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole are associated with atmospheric circulation patterns that promote stable high-pressure systems over the Eastern Mediterranean, suppressing rainfall and increasing the likelihood of prolonged dry spells.
The study also found that conditions in the Indian Ocean in December can signal the risk of prolonged dry spells later in the winter, potentially improving seasonal forecasting. ■
