BRUSSELS/MADRID, July 10 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to halt trade with Spain has renewed tensions with one of Washington's most outspoken European allies. Analysts say any attempt to translate his frustration over Spain's defense and foreign policy into trade action would face significant legal, political and strategic obstacles.
More broadly, the episode highlights a broader shift in transatlantic relations, where disputes are increasingly driven by burden-sharing and national interests, rather than the so-called shared values that have long underpinned the alliance.
A PATTERN OF GROWING FRICTION
At the NATO summit held in Ankara, Türkiye, Trump again accused Spain of failing to spend enough on defense, calling it "a terrible partner in NATO" and declaring that Washington no longer wanted to "do any trade business with Spain."
The dispute follows months of disagreements. Madrid refused to endorse Trump's demand that NATO members raise their defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, arguing that the target was neither realistic nor necessary. Earlier this year, Spain also refused to allow U.S. aircraft to use Spanish bases for strikes on Iran.
Similarly, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has criticized Israel's military campaign in Gaza and condemned the U.S. operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
These disputes have made Sanchez one of the few European leaders willing to openly challenge Trump on security and foreign policy, turning Spain into a recurring target of criticism from Washington.
Kristina Kausch, deputy managing director of the South and Wider Europe Program at the German Marshall Fund, said the latest dispute reflected "a pattern of rhetoric, but with no follow-through." She added that it was "just anger over Sanchez's rebellious non-compliance."
Bjorn Beam, a former Central Intelligence Agency officer and now senior analyst at Arcano Research, said Trump's threat amounted to "coercion in plain sight," aimed not only at Spain but also at other European governments reluctant to fully support U.S. military operations or increase defense spending.
Meanwhile, senior fellow at the Brussels think tank Bruegel, Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, said Trump was "aggressively lashing out" in order to shift attention away from the situation in the Middle East.
HOW REAL IS THE THREAT?
Responding to Trump's remarks, Sanchez dismissed the threat, saying commercial ties are built "between companies, not between governments."
The European Commission also quickly signaled support for Madrid. Commission spokesperson Olof Gill said the European Union (EU) expected the United States to honor its commitments in bilateral trade discussions, emphasizing that Brussels negotiates trade policy on behalf of all member states.
Sun Chenghao, senior fellow at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy, told Xinhua that Washington would find it difficult to impose comprehensive trade restrictions solely on Spain, because trade policy falls under the EU's common commercial framework rather than the authority of individual member states.
Legal constraints further complicate the picture. Ana Amador, an international trade and regulatory compliance attorney at Brussels-based law firm Steptoe, said recent U.S. court rulings have narrowed the executive branch's authority to impose sweeping tariffs under emergency powers without clear national security justification.
While additional restrictions could still emerge through trade investigations or future U.S.-EU negotiations, a comprehensive trade cutoff against Spain remains improbable, she added.
Trump would likely be discouraged by the potential reaction of financial markets, which could view a renewed trade war with Europe unfavorably, Kirkegaard said.
BEYOND SPAIN
Although Sanchez said on Wednesday that Spain-U.S. relations remained "very positive" across social, cultural, economic and political fields, analysts said the episode was likely to deepen political frictions between Washington and Madrid.
Amador noted that it reinforced European concerns about the reliability of U.S. alliance commitments under Trump's approach, complicating the ongoing U.S.-EU negotiations. "It also complicates cooperation in fields such as national security, Ukraine, migration, and strategic supply chains, as trust is undermined in relations with historical allies and partners," she said.
The dispute also carries broader implications for transatlantic ties. According to Sun, it reflects a deeper shift in the relationship from shared values toward questions of burden-sharing and the distribution of costs and benefits. Under Trump's approach, alliance commitments are increasingly judged by what partners contribute to the U.S. interests rather than by longstanding political solidarity.
Ding Chun, director of the Center for European Studies at Fudan University, told Xinhua that under normal circumstances, disagreements of this nature would typically be managed through diplomatic channels or security consultations. By directly threatening to "cut off all trade with Spain," however, Trump has increasingly framed alliance disputes in transactional and punitive terms. ■
