KUALA LUMPUR, May 18 (Xinhua) -- Maybank Investment Bank has cut Malaysia's 2026 real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 4.4 percent from 4.9 percent, citing prolonged risks from the ongoing Middle East conflict that are disrupting global supply chains, driving up crude oil prices and increasing shipping costs.
Malaysia's economic outlook is coming under pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East threaten to disrupt global trade flows, fuel inflation and weigh on consumer spending, the research house said in a note on Sunday.
According to Maybank, the conflict has heightened disruption risks through persistently elevated crude oil prices, a sharp decline in ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz, higher shipping rates and rising global supply chain pressures.
Meanwhile, Hong Leong Investment Bank Research remained cautious on the spillover effects from the Strait of Hormuz blockade, warning that production disruptions could emerge from June onwards.
"For now, we maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.5 percent, in line with the Malaysian Central Bank's point estimate," said the research house on Monday.
CGS International also warned on Friday that risks are increasingly tilted to the downside in the second half of the year, despite expectations of resilient growth in the second quarter supported by firm external demand and domestic activity.
CGS International expects domestic demand to remain supported by policy stability and targeted subsidies, and maintains its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.8 percent. ■
