by Tang Zhiyuan
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has recently led Japan's Liberal Democratic Party to secure over two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives, achieving "one-party dominance" in Japan's political arena.
This political carnival, wildly hyped by the right-wing forces, is nothing but a castle in the air built on shaky foundations. Beneath its glamorous facade lie strategic predicaments of prolonged economic decline and growing social anxiety. After taking office, Takaichi unveiled a policy framework centered on constitutional revision, military expansion, and assertive posturing toward the outside world. Far from offering a way out of these predicaments, this approach risks steering Japan further down the perilous path of accelerated right-wing radicalization.
In retrospect, Takaichi's victory lies essentially in the release of long-standing grievances in Japanese society, rather than in a public endorsement of her policy agenda.
During Japan's "three lost decades," economic growth has stagnated, which is being made worse by a rapidly ageing population. The population aged 65 and above accounts for approximately 30 percent of the total, while the labor force has been shrinking for 20 consecutive years. About 60 percent of the elderly cannot cover their living expenses with pensions alone, and nearly 10 million people aged 65 and above remain in the workforce, mostly doing manual labor.
In 2026, the yen's exchange rate fell to around 150 to the U.S. dollar at one point. Real wages in Japan have stagnated for nearly 30 years. Consumer prices have kept surging. About 21,000 food items saw price hikes in 2025. The prices for rice, for example, soared by 67.5 percent, forcing many ordinary households to cut costs by eating less rice and replacing minced meat with tofu. To reduce labor costs, companies have abandoned the lifetime employment system. Around 40 percent of the workforce are now non-regular employees, exceeding 20 million in total -- a 20-percent increase from two decades ago. The younger generation bears mounting pressure and is generally uncertain about the future. According to a Japanese Cabinet Office survey, 70 percent of young people are financially strained and have no confidence in their future. Nearly 70 percent of young people aged 20 to 34 live with their parents simply to save on accommodation and food expenses.
Statistics from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan show that the country's relative poverty rate has reached 15.4 percent, meaning one in every six to seven people lives in relative poverty. Yet the government has repeatedly cut subsistence allowance payments. One recipient openly stated on a TV program: "The allowance is so low. It feels like they are pushing me to die."
Faced with such social circumstances, Takaichi has tapped into public sentiment with encouraging slogans such as "normal country" and "economic revitalization" to cater to the younger generation's aspirations for change. Opinion polls show that nearly 60 percent of Japanese under 30 support Takaichi -- a clear sign that a generation adrift is being swept up by radical momentum.
Takaichi's policy agenda, however, is full of extreme right-wing rhetoric and deeply disconnected from reality. On constitutional revision, she blatantly demanded that the Self-Defense Forces be enshrined in the Constitution, in an attempt to break through the constraints of Article Nine of the Japanese Constitution. Her ruling coalition partner, Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party), proposed deleting Clause Two of Article Nine to directly establish a "National Defense Force." More alarmingly, recent public remarks by a close aide to Takaichi and a senior official at the Prime Minister's Office openly advocating nuclear armament have been interpreted as indicating that Japan may allow the United States to deploy nuclear weapons in Japan or even develop its own nuclear weapons. Such moves have crossed the red line of Japan's post-war security policy and pushed regional nuclear proliferation risks to new heights.
In terms of military expansion, the Takaichi administration has raised defense spending to a historic peak. Japan's defense budget for the fiscal year 2026 stands at 9 trillion yen (57 billion U.S. dollars), marking 14 consecutive years of increase. The funds are primarily allocated for procuring U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles, upgrading domestically produced Type 12 surface-to-ship missiles, and developing long-range strike capabilities such as hypersonic weapons. Japan is also advancing the restructuring of its Air Self-Defense Force into an "Air and Space Self-Defense Force" and establishing a new "Space Operations Group." These moves signify Japan's outright abandonment of the "exclusive defense" principle in favor of "active defense" and "regional deterrence." Its military posture is extending from homeland defense to long-range strike and space warfare capabilities, posing serious challenges to the regional security equilibrium.
On economic policy, Takaichi has proposed a "20-trillion-yen economic stimulus package" and the "abolition of the eight-percent consumption tax on food." The core logic of the policy is to encourage large-scale borrowing, and channel funds into defense, semiconductors and other industries, with the aim of driving growth through fiscal expansion. But such a vision completely ignores Japan's precarious fiscal situation. By the end of 2025, Japan's national debt surpassed 1,342 trillion yen (8.45 trillion dollars), with a debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of nearly 230 percent, the highest among developed countries. New national bond issuance for the fiscal year 2026 is planned at 29.584 trillion yen (186 billion dollars). With dwindling revenue as a result of tax cuts on one hand and rising military spending on the other, Takaichi can only rely on the central bank bond purchases to maintain fiscal sustainability, a strategy that entirely hinges on market confidence. Should that confidence collapse, it would trigger a chain reaction leading to a debt crisis.
As for diplomacy and regional policy, Takaichi has prioritized U.S.-Japan military integration, pushing for the reorganization of the U.S. Forces Japan. More provocatively, Takaichi has made irresponsible remarks regarding the Taiwan Strait, even discussing so-called "joint evacuation plans." Such statements grossly interfere in China's internal affairs, violate the basic norms of international relations, and expose an attempt to find excuses for potential intervention in the Taiwan issue. In essence, this approach seeks to create regional tensions, pursue beggar-thy-neighbor policies, project strength externally and stoke populism -- all aimed at diverting discontent among the Japanese public away from economic hardships and governance crises.
The inherent contradictions and practical constraints of Takaichi's governance are set to plunge her administration into multiple predicaments. Fiscal pressures have created a vicious cycle among "tax cuts, military expansion, and fiscal spending." Failing to abolish the consumption tax would violate campaign promises, while abolishing it would widen the fiscal gap; failing to increase defense spending would not meet U.S. demands and Japanese right-wing expectations, while continued increases would squeeze public welfare spending. The Takaichi administration hopes to revive growth through monetary easing and stimulus policies. Slogans like tax cuts, revenue growth, and inflation control sound appealing, but in reality, large companies and monopoly capital reap the benefits while ordinary Japanese gain little and even have to bear heavier burdens. Diplomatically, constitutional revision, military buildup, and provocations over the Taiwan Strait have heightened vigilance among neighboring countries, leaving Japan increasingly isolated in regional diplomacy. Economically, Takaichi's erroneous remarks on Taiwan have severely damaged the confidence in trade and investment with China, Japan's largest trading partner. Takaichi's approach of "subordinating economics to politics" is exacting a heavy price from Japan.
More alarmingly, the political logic behind Takaichi's policy agenda is strikingly similar to the one behind the rise of Japanese militarism before World War II. In the 1930s, Japan faced economic recession and social anxiety, and militarist forces diverted internal conflicts through foreign aggression. Today, the Takaichi administration is stoking populist sentiment through constitutional revision and military buildup, and deflecting domestic crises through external provocation. Japanese society is becoming more conservative and political checks and balances are weakening, which is eerily reminiscent of the rise of militarist ascendancy following the Feb. 26 Incident. Like others did in that era, Takaichi is exploiting public discontent with the status quo and a yearning for change, using an illusory narrative of "national strength" to cover up the accumulation of real risks.
Takaichi is leading Japan toward an existential crossroads. The castle in the air she is building cannot stand the test of reality. Japan's way forward is by no means to repeat the old path of militarist expansion, but rather to confront its own predicaments squarely and address development and security issues with a pragmatic attitude. Domestically, Japan should abandon radical borrowing and military expansion, refocus fiscal priorities on public welfare and structural reform, and revitalize the economy through prudent policies. Externally, Japan should uphold the spirit of the Peace Constitution, resolve differences with neighboring countries through sincere dialogue, expand development space through mutually beneficial cooperation, and avoid once again becoming a source of turmoil that plagues the region.
Editor's note: The author is a commentator on international affairs.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of Xinhua News Agency.
