ADEN, Yemen, Dec. 27 (Xinhua) -- Nearly one month after Yemen's Southern Transitional Council (STC) launched a swift and wide-ranging military campaign across the country's south, the political and security landscape has entered a new and uncertain phase marked by shifting power balances, contested legitimacy, and growing pressure on daily life.
The STC supporters view the results as a long-awaited step toward a unified security authority after years of fragmentation in southern Yemen, while critics warn that the moves risk deepening internal divisions.
WHAT IS STC AND WHAT HAPPENED
Formed in 2017, the STC is a political and military group that advocates self-determination and the eventual independence of South Yemen. The group is formally part of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), Yemen's executive body of the internationally recognized government.
Meanwhile, Yemen's northern regions, including the capital Sanaa and most of the country's population centers, remain under the control of the Houthi group, who are aligned with Iran and have been engaged in a years-long conflict with Yemen's government, the STC and the Saudi-led coalition.
Frontlines between the Houthis and government-aligned forces have largely remained frozen since 2022, while United Nations (UN)-led peace efforts have stalled.
Tensions escalated on Dec. 3 when STC forces moved into the huge oil-rich province of Hadramout following clashes with pro-government units. Within days, the STC announced it had taken control of all eight governorates that once formed the former South Yemen, securing the southern coastline and areas rich in energy resources. Government-aligned forces withdrew toward northern frontlines in Marib province, underscoring the speed and scale of the shift.
STC forces later expanded into Al-Mahrah province, which borders Oman, without reported resistance. The STC subsequently began recruiting local forces in both provinces, despite repeated calls from the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia for de-escalation.
REGIONAL REACTIONS AND RESPONSE
The PLC sharply criticized the STC's actions, describing them as unilateral measures that violated agreed transitional frameworks and risked further fragmenting state institutions.
Political shockwaves were most evident in Aden, Yemen's interim capital. Shortly after PLC Chairman Rashad al-Alimi departed the city for Saudi Arabia on Dec. 5, STC units assumed full control of security inside the presidential palace compound and started holding meetings there. Two days later, Saudi and Sudanese troops stationed there as part of the Arab coalition completed a quiet withdrawal, reinforcing perceptions of the STC's de facto authority in the city and other southern provinces.
Following the capture of Hadramout and Al-Mahrah, a joint senior Saudi-Emirati military delegation visited Aden and met with STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi. According to sources, the delegation urged the STC to withdraw from the two strategic provinces, but the request was rejected.
On Thursday, Saudi Arabia described the STC's deployments as an "unjustified escalation" and called for an orderly withdrawal. On Friday, Saudi warplanes carried out airstrikes on military sites affiliated with the STC in Hadramout, which local sources described as "warning strikes."
In response, the STC said it was ready to coordinate with de-escalation efforts but reiterated that it would not withdraw from the areas it had taken control of, adding that its presence was aimed at cutting off supply routes and preventing smuggling to the Houthi group, warning that military pressure would complicate efforts to stabilize the situation and stressing that it would not submit to demands imposed by military force.
REGIONAL SECURITY ANALYSES
Ali bin Hadi, a military observer based in Aden, said Riyadh is seeking to prevent the rapid consolidation of new power realities along its southern border.
"Saudi Arabia cannot afford to allow a precedent in which major territorial changes are imposed unilaterally and then accepted as a fait accompli," bin Hadi said. "Such developments directly affect border security and regional balance, not only for Saudi Arabia but also for neighboring Oman."
He added that the pace of the STC's advance has exceeded what the current political environment can absorb, arguing that continued expansion without broad regional backing risks triggering corrective pressure rather than recognition.
Bin Hadi said the Saudi strikes should be understood as a signal rather than a shift in alliances. "From a military standpoint, the message is about restoring deterrence and curbing momentum, not opening a new front," he said.
In response, Saudi-backed and UN-recognized figures within Yemen's presidential leadership have moved to challenge the STC's actions through diplomatic and political means. They argue that calls for separation by the STC do not reflect a shared position across the south and caution that unilateral steps could deepen instability.
WHAT LIES AHEAD
As the security landscape shifted, living conditions in Aden and other southern cities deteriorated. Fuel and cooking gas shortages led to soaring prices, long queues, traffic congestion, and sporadic clashes near distribution points. Public transportation was disrupted, businesses scaled back operations, and hospitals struggled to secure fuel for emergency generators.
The UN continues to revive a political roadmap that includes a ceasefire and a broader negotiated settlement in the coming months. Analysts say the STC's recent actions may have been aimed at reshaping power dynamics ahead of any renewed regional talks, a move that could further complicate diplomatic efforts.
As southern Yemen enters a new phase marked by shifting alliances and contested authority, the weeks ahead will test whether the current power shift can bring greater stability and improved living conditions -- or whether unresolved political tensions and service failures will increase the hardships for a population already exhausted by years of war.
At the same time, uncertainty is growing among residents in southern Yemen, many of whom fear that rising tensions in the south could lead to further escalation. Some locals say they are concerned that renewed confrontation between former allies could worsen daily life, compounding the hardships they have already endured. ■
