by Matthew Rusling
WASHINGTON, Dec. 17 (Xinhua) -- Rising U.S. jobless rate could bring substantial uncertainty to next year's midterm elections, according to experts, media and politicians.
The jobless rate jumped to 4.6 percent in November, a four-year high, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This indicates that U.S. President Donald Trump "has taken his eye off his most important goal, which is improving the economy," Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Darrell West told Xinhua.
"Unemployment is rising and inflation remains high. It is a bad combination for someone who campaigned on those issues and promised he would focus on them from day one," West said.
"He is spending a lot of time on foreign policy and not devoting sufficient time to domestic matters," West said, pointing to the military buildup off the coast of South American nation Venezuela.
"This will be a big problem for Republicans in the midterm elections," West said, referring to the Congressional elections that are less than a year away.
Indeed, a CNN poll released in early November showed that 72 percent of Americans say the U.S. economy is not faring well, and 61 percent believe Trump's policies are causing the economy to decline.
This comes on the heels of last month's Democratic sweep in off-year elections in New York City and the states of Virginia and New Jersey. Analysts, media and politicians expressed the belief that the elections proved that the economy is foremost on voters' minds.
Christopher Galdieri, a political science professor at Saint Anselm College in the northeastern state of New Hampshire, told Xinhua: "Higher unemployment combined with prices creeping upward is a volatile political combination. Without making any predictions, it's the sort of thing that could lead to a very bad midterm for Republicans."
Former House Speaker and GOP icon Newt Gingrich said in an interview in early December that the GOP is "in real trouble" if the economy does not recover.
"Look, I think it's pretty straightforward: If the economy recovers, as you and I think it will, Republicans will keep the House and increase their margin in the Senate," Gingrich said on Fox Business Network's show "Kudlow."
At the same time, the party that controls the White House historically fares poorly in the midterm elections, which means Trump could have a tough road ahead, even if jobless numbers bounce back.
Some economists believe the jobless rate will continue to rise.
"My guess now is that unemployment will continue to rise towards 5 percent," Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Xinhua.
"Tariffs have played a modest role, by raising the prices of consumer goods. Bigger tariff effects will be felt in 2026," Hufbauer said, referring to the tariffs that Trump has placed on most trading partners.
Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, told Xinhua the main reason for unemployment "has been the Trump tariffs along with cutbacks at the federal level."
The tariffs have also "created a huge amount of uncertainty," Baker said. ■
