by Burak Akinci
ANKARA, Sept. 23 (Xinhua) -- As Israel's military campaign in Gaza continues, its rivalry with Türkiye is increasingly playing out in Syria, where both countries are maneuvering to shape the future of the war-torn nation, experts said.
Since the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government in late 2024, the militia-turned interim authorities have struggled to establish stability, relying heavily on support from external powers. Türkiye has expanded its influence by backing Damascus' institutions, securing its borders, and providing humanitarian aid. Israel, meanwhile, has intensified military operations and positioned itself as a strategic actor in the post-Assad landscape.
While tensions between Türkiye and Israel have escalated since the outbreak of the Gaza war, Ali Oguz Dirioz, an associate professor of international relations at TOBB University in Ankara, said a direct military confrontation remains "unlikely," noting that the two countries "are not neighbors and do not share a land border."
"However, third-party regions have become the arena where they are testing each other's limits," he added, pointing to Syria.
For Ankara, Syria is central to national security after years of threats from extremist groups and Kurdish militants, against whom Turkish forces have conducted multiple cross-border operations. Israel views Syrian territory as critical for countering regional rivals and safeguarding its security.
"Competition has clearly emerged in Syria," said Oytun Orhan, a senior researcher at the Ankara-based Center for Middle Eastern Studies. "The Syrian transitional authorities work closely with Türkiye, while Israel regards southern Syria as a zone of vital interest. These overlapping priorities inevitably lead to friction, particularly amid the diplomatic fallout from the Gaza crisis."
Reports that Israel and Syria are negotiating a security deal are being "closely monitored" in Ankara, a Turkish diplomatic source told Xinhua. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel is in talks with Syria to explore the possibility of peace.
Syria's interim leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, attending the UN General Assembly in New York, expressed hope for a security agreement but downplayed the prospect of formal recognition. He also expressed hesitation to join the Abraham Accords, in which the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco normalized relations with Israel in 2020, noting that Syria has been the target of more than 1,000 Israeli strikes from the Golan Heights.
Observers warned that any security arrangement between Israel and Syria could reshape influence in Damascus, where Türkiye has heavily invested in political and security ties.
Since October 2023, Israel has conducted a multi-front military campaign involving Hamas, Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. The conflict in Gaza has resulted in more than 65,000 Palestinian deaths. Tensions escalated further after Israeli strikes in Qatar on Sept. 9 killed senior Hamas leaders. Given Qatar's close partnership with Türkiye, Ankara viewed the attack as a potential signal that Israel could expand confrontations into regions tied to Turkish interests.
"In Ankara, the Qatar strikes are taken very seriously," said Serkan Demirtas, a Turkish foreign policy analyst. "Israel is seen as seeking to disrupt regional stability and consolidate influence, while also testing the reliability of U.S. security guarantees to its NATO ally."
Despite heightened tensions, analysts said a direct war between Türkiye and Israel remains unlikely. Dirioz said Ankara is more likely to focus on threat management and diplomacy, while Israel is expected to avoid direct confrontation. Washington's role as a partner to both nations also acts as a restraint, and Türkiye's NATO membership makes escalation highly improbable.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, scheduled to meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House later this week, said he would discuss the Gaza conflict with his American counterpart.
"With Ankara determined to secure its southern border and Israel intent on shaping the post-Assad order, Türkiye and Israel are likely to remain at odds," Orhan said. ■
