KUALA LUMPUR, June 23 (Xinhua) -- Economists have projected a cautious trade outlook for Malaysia amid global uncertainties, including the U.S. tariffs.
Maybank Investment Bank said in a note on Monday that three consecutive months of decline in intermediate goods imports signal weaker export performance for Malaysia.
"The outlook also depends on evolving trade and tariffs e.g., outcome of U.S.-Malaysia trade and tariff negotiations; U.S. decision on product-specific tariffs, especially on semiconductors," said the research house.
It expects Malaysia's full-year exports and imports growth of 4.3 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively.
According to Maybank, Malaysia's exports benefited from front-loading amid the 90-day suspension of the U.S. reciprocal tariffs, coupled with an exemption on electrical and electronics (E&E) products, which account for 44 percent of total U.S. imports from Malaysia.
Malaysia's May exports fell 1.1 percent year-on-year, signaling the end of front-loading ahead of U.S. tariffs. Its imports slowed to 6.6 percent year-on-year amid a further decline in intermediate goods.
Hong Leong Investment Bank Research also said in a note on Monday that Malaysia's latest trade data highlighted the emerging impact of U.S. tariff hikes, as the temporary boost from front-loading fades and underlying demand softens.
"The evolving global tariff landscape and inventory adjustments are expected to weigh on export growth," the research house said.
Meanwhile, MIDF Research said in a note last Friday that it forecasts Malaysia's export growth to moderate to 2 percent in 2025 and import growth to ease to 4.5 percent, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid ongoing trade uncertainties.
On a positive note, it highlighted the expansion of bilateral trade and diversification away from reliance on the U.S. market may help cushion the impact of tariffs.
"As uncertainties surrounding external trade developments persist, we continue to expect resilient domestic consumption will remain the key pillar supporting Malaysia's economic growth," it added. ■
