ANKARA, June 17 (Xinhua) -- A prolonged conflict between Iran and Israel could have far-reaching consequences for Türkiye's economy and risk sparking fresh waves of migration, analysts warn.
"The economic fallout would be significant, especially for import-dependent countries like Türkiye," Istanbul-based economist Atilla Yesilada told Xinhua. He said surging energy costs could widen Türkiye's current account deficit, stoke inflation, and complicate the central bank's efforts to stabilize prices.
Yesilada also warned that any disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz -- a vital conduit for global energy supplies -- could rattle Turkish financial markets and strain the country's manufacturing sector. Türkiye, he added, remains particularly vulnerable to external shocks, especially if the United States becomes more deeply drawn into the conflict.
Some local media outlets have reported a slight uptick in Iranians seeking temporary refuge in Türkiye following recent Israeli strikes on Iranian targets. Türkiye, which already hosts millions of Syrian refugees, shares a 569-km border with Iran and allows Iranian citizens visa-free entry for tourism purposes.
However, Turkish authorities have dismissed reports of a refugee surge. The Communications Directorate said the Interior Ministry and security forces had observed "no unusual activity, congestion, or irregular crossings" at the Kapikoy and Gurbulak border gates in eastern Van province.
Ankara has intensified diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the confrontation, warning that a protracted war could destabilize the broader region and threaten Türkiye's fragile economic recovery.
Since hostilities broke out on Friday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly called for an immediate ceasefire and a revival of diplomacy. A NATO member, Türkiye maintains open communication channels with both Tehran and Washington, offering to facilitate indirect talks on Iran's nuclear program.
On Monday, Erdogan announced a boost in missile production to enhance Türkiye's defense capabilities, pledging to establish an "unchallengeable deterrent." He has held high-level discussions with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and U.S. President Donald Trump.
Oytun Orhan, a senior researcher at the Ankara-based Center for Middle Eastern Studies, said Israel's latest strikes mark "a new and more dangerous phase" in the conflict, as both its intensity and geographic scope widen. He warned that a drawn-out war in the Middle East could have serious ramifications for regional players, including Türkiye, exacerbating tensions already inflamed by the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Türkiye has traditionally maintained largely good relations with Tehran and has refrained from joining Western sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear program. However, its ties with Israel have sharply deteriorated over the war in Gaza, with Ankara growing increasingly vocal in its criticism of Israeli military actions against Palestinians.
While Türkiye has positioned itself as a diplomatic mediator in conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war, Orhan cautioned that the complexity of the Iran-Israel confrontation may limit Ankara's ability to wield meaningful influence. ■
